Are the Dolphins Being Run By Pigeons?

14 May

“The more you’ve invested in something, the longer you stay with it despite losses.” – Psychologist James W. Diller, Eastern Connecticut State University.

This is called the “Sunk Cost Fallacy”. Pigeons pick at one button long after it has stopped causing food to appear, even when a second, fully functional button is presented. The same dynamic is in play in business, when companies or individuals continue to invest in something not necessarily based on a promising outlook, but because of their prior investment. They often do this at the expense of moving on to another opportunity.

It has been reported recently that signs are pointing toward a third year under center for Chad “Crazylegs” Henne. If this is eventually the decision, it certainly isn’t being made based on an improvement in his performance. Chad’s numbers thus far have been remarkably similar, with a running game or not, with a #1 wideout or not. Perhaps they are hoping that a light will come on for Chad if we can run again, and if he has Marshall and Bess as targets?

Perhaps that light will come on, and Chad will live up to the maddening potential he flashes from time to time? Perhaps we’re still going to snag one of the QBs still in play? Or perhaps we are witnessing the Sunk Cost Fallacy at work? Perhaps the Bifecta is going to pick at this same button over and over, hoping the birdseed finally begins to pour forth like majestic…um…birdseed?

If wrong, they could be pink-slipped and sent away from the nest. Although Stephen Ross may have perfectly demonstrated the Sunk Cost Fallacy this past winter, when he almost pecked the Harbaugh button before waddling back to his original investment and pouring more cash and years into it.

GO DOLPHINS, and feel free to follow us on Twitter @thebottlenose

The Bottlenose is one of the top Photoshop artists in his household.


10 Responses to “Are the Dolphins Being Run By Pigeons?”

  1. Ranadicus May 14, 2011 at 2:07 pm #

    Is there even a point to these articles anymore? If you don’t like Henne just say “I don’t like Henne” without all the other rubbish.

    • Dan Ewen May 14, 2011 at 2:17 pm #

      Does someone have a case of the Lockout Grumps?

      And discussing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em isn’t pointless. Ask Kenny Rogers.

  2. shaun May 14, 2011 at 4:55 pm #

    my god why do I read this column? You suck. Henne will be good. Marshall is over rated and just a possession receiver. R&R did nothing and the playcalling was bad. Henne is a young qb who had his rhythm broken by the wildcat and bad play calls, and had 2 games stolen by the refs…(Steelers, Saints). Turn in your fan card you tard

    • Dan Ewen May 14, 2011 at 5:32 pm #

      Maybe you should watch some Brandon Marshall highlights, because you’re sorely mistaken. And during the lockout maybe you can teach Checkdown Chad how to get him the ball?

  3. Pickettilli May 14, 2011 at 9:32 pm #

    I like this article, whats that saying insanity is doing something the same over and over again but expecting diffrent results? Yeah, the Dolphins show some signs of insanity and this draws good comparisons, but Im still a Henne guy. When I think back to John Beck, Gus Ferrotte, A.J. Feely, Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, the list goes on… I see just so much potential in Chad and I think we should give him all the time he needs before we go on giving him the boot. Good stuff though kep it coming.

    • Dan Ewen May 14, 2011 at 9:44 pm #

      Thank you, sir. I appreciate it.

      And I leave open the possibility of them being right about Henne, assuming they do go into battle with him again. We’ve all seen him do some impressive things.

      Just asking the question, as Orton, Palmer, Vince Young, Matt Flynn, Kolb etc may all be in play. Is a big part of reluctance to change at QB based on prior investment in Henne?

      Will he be a 20TD 10INT guy like Orton’s been the last three years? Will he throw 26TDs and more yards than Rodgers like Carson just did? Heck even Vince Young’s scored 22 TDs with 10 INTs over his last 16 games.

      Interesting questions moving forward in the offseason and (hopefully) season.

      Thanks for stopping by The Bottlenose.

  4. shula knows May 15, 2011 at 12:29 am #

    The tri-dummies unfortunately are dumber than pigeons. They kept making the same mistakes last year on offense disrupting henna’s flow by inserting that archaic wildcat formation that is no loner effective and having a conservative offense that settled for fg’s. While the rest of the league tries to improve and teams invest dearly in new college qbs. some will hit with the next Brady, while the phins selected none.

    this will be another lost season unfortunately for the average fan. the schedule is tougher than last. 6-10 is very likely.

    Phins mentioned that season ticket sales are down and blame lockout. That too me is the funniest story here that is being overlooked. As the season tanks, there will be even less fans to cheer for this mismanaged and poorly coached team.

    there should be a fan poll on how many season ticket holders do not plan on renewing and a game by game pulse on individual ticket sales as this dolphin team is like a falling stock.

    good article. – particularly liked Sporano’s head on a pigeon. makes complete sense, after all, he is a birdbrain.

  5. shula knows May 15, 2011 at 12:37 am #

    When everyone was expecting Sporano (bird brain) to select a quality offense coordinator, he selected the worst possible candidate. You should read some of the articles sports writers and analysts woe about Dabol last year. One mentioned, he was not even qualified to coach a high school team. true story.

    the QB coach pigeon boy selects has never coached qb’s before while there were some real candidates available.

    this staff is as unimpressive as their head coach.

    Frankly, I will be surprised to see them succeed. Which dolphins fan honestly, would not select NE, JETS or BILLS coaching staff over ours? They are destined to fail. the team gave up on bird boy last year.

    6-10 would be a god year for this mismanaged group

  6. Jason May 15, 2011 at 11:38 am #

    I don’t think you quite understand the suck cost fallacy. Given the current situation, ignoring past costs, what is the best move going forward for the organization? Is there an available QB that is better than Henne? I would say no, and that is without factoring in the ADDITIONAL cost to acquire that QB. This is not a case of sunk costs at all. This regime has proven that it doesn’t fall into the sunk costs fallacy time and time again.

    • Dan Ewen May 15, 2011 at 6:49 pm #

      If you believe Chad Henne is better than all of those guys, well, you’re entitled to that opinion. I will say that stats and on field performance do not support that idea yet.

      So it’s presumably a belief in his future. I am simply asking the question whether the Bifecta’s belief in Henne’s future (assuming they don’t make a move at QB) may be at all colored by the time and energy both they and their guru The Tuna have already put into him.

      The decision to move on or stick with a struggling young QB faces teams all the time. In my opinion the time and energy invested in that guy could very well enter into that decision making process.

      A lot of this may depend on the sincerity of Ross’ extension. If the Bifecta truly feels that they have two years, a decision to give Henne another look is much less risky.

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