With Draft in the Rear View, Trading for QBs Could Be Difficult

15 May

There’s one small problem with some of the quarterback names being kicked around as offseason acquisitions: The draft is over.

Aaron Rodgers has already missed time due to a concussion. Matt Flynn has shown flashes as a backup. He’s a free agent after the 2011 season, but why should the Packers send him to Miami before the trade deadline? Wouldn’t they be better served having Flynn around for half the season in case of an emergency? Similar story with Kevin Kolb. Suppose Mike Vick gets broken in half by Demarcus Ware, or busted for running a Japanese Fighting Fish ring. Without Kolb in town the “Iggles” might be cooked by Thanksgiving. Tim Tebow has shown some moxie, but is still a 50% passer at this point. New Head Coach John Fox is still calling Kyle Orton as his starter.

These teams may not have much interest in trading for picks this summer when the draft is almost a full year away. It could be that Miami’s chance to add another arm (assuming they even decide to) will be in the most volatile of situations.

Vince Young is done in Tennessee, this according to Owner Bud Adams. His Nashville estate is now on the market. He may be a bit of a  head case, but he’s also scored 22TDs with 10 INTs in his last 16 full starts. Not to mention he’d be free to acquire, or darned close to it (might be worth a late draft pick to keep him from hitting the open market).

Carson Palmer is in a tense standoff with the Cincy brass. They’ve drafted Andy Dalton, and Carson has sworn to never play for them again. He’s 31, and is no spring chicken. But hey, 26TDs and just under 4,000 yards last season is nothing to sneeze at. It’s gotten a little ugly in southern Ohio, and the Bengals could hang onto Carson all season out of spite.

McNabb is still under contract in Washington, and could be traded after his benching. No love lost between him and Shanahan. Still, McNabb broke his personal interception record in 2010, and posted his lowest passer rating since he was a rookie, many bowls of Chunky Soup ago. Not to mention he’ll turn 35 next season.

A couple more aging arms grace the unrestricted free agent list in Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger. They’ve both had their moments in the past, but neither has logged a decent season’s worth of stats in years. Hasselbeck looked like a man possessed in the playoffs, but his regular season numbers have been in decline since 2007.

The CBA mess flip-flopped the order of the draft and free agency, which could reduce quarterback movement this offseason. Picks in the 2o12 draft may not be enough of an incentive for teams to sacrifice depth heading into a season. Kolb, Orton, Flynn. These are three of the youngest guys in play, and they all may be staying put unless someone is willing to overpay, or include useful players as bait.

GO DOLPHINS, and feel free to follow us on Twitter @thebottlenose

Matt Flynn may strike the Heisman pose in Green Bay for a little while longer.

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13 Responses to “With Draft in the Rear View, Trading for QBs Could Be Difficult”

  1. Ripp May 15, 2011 at 1:34 am #

    ok, lets think about this. Bangles will probably ask for a 1st rd pick for Palmer, Broncos at minimum will ask for a 2nd rd pick for Orton, Eagles will ask for a 1st rd pick or as rumored two 2nd rd picks for Kolb and Packers will probably ask for a 2nd rd for Flynn. Here is my problem with this….Palmer and Orton is nothing more then a stop gap QB would you really sacrifice the future of the team for these QBs? There are more questions surrounding Kolb then there is questions involving Henne and the same could be said of Flynn. Bottom line only two of those four QBs are clear upgrades over Henne but at the same time they both reached their potential and the other two are unknown and would be a huge gamble. I mean think about it again we give up a high draft pick in a desperate move for one of these QBs, next years draft comes rolling around and we end up in a position to draft or to trade up for Luck, but wait, we gave up that ability to move up because we don’t have the ammo to make a trade happen and we are stuck with a stop gap or a QB we hope will develop. Odds are that Carolina will have the number one pick once again next year. They took Newton this past draft so what are the chances they will be looking to trade down. Lets stick with one of the FA options to challenge Henne, ride out the season then go for a long term solution.

    • Dan Ewen May 15, 2011 at 8:34 am #

      Some good points, but would a 2nd rounder for Orton really screw with the future of the team? Look at our last ten 2nd rounders. Orton is still in his late 20s, and has averaged 20TDs and 10 INTs for the last three seasons. Could be a stopgap for the next 6 years at that rate.

      Thanks for visiting The Bottlenose.

      • Ripp May 15, 2011 at 12:24 pm #

        How can you say that Orton is not a stop gap. His age has nothing to do with it. It is the fact that he has reached his celling. Pennington was a pretty good QB as well but do you really think Pennington has the ability to carry a team to the SB? It is the same with Orton. It’s not just about making the playoffs. You make the playoffs to make a run at the SB and there is no sense of making the playoffs if you can’t do that. The other thing to take into account is he failed in one system and succeeded in another. So you have to ask is it the system or is it the QB? Again, bottom line I would not give up the future of this team for him.

      • Dan Ewen May 15, 2011 at 4:01 pm #

        In what world is a trading a second rounder “giving up the future of this team”? If Henne was putting up 20TD 10INT seasons we would be dancing in the streets. Orton’s done it three years straight and could play for 6 seasons before he’s Hasselbeck’s age. I don’t think that has to be a stopgap situation. Now, Hasselbeck/Bulger/McNabb? Those are stopgaps.

      • Ripp May 16, 2011 at 3:18 am #

        OK, do you think he can win a SB?

        In today’s NFL a 2nd rd is a starting caliber player. It also makes it a whole lot more difficult for Miami to trade up in the draft for a QB that they might be sold on as a franchise QB. That is something Orton is not. Lets also not forget there is a reason Elway is willing to part ways with him.

      • Dan Ewen May 16, 2011 at 7:51 am #

        I believe we will have an elite defense. If we improve our running game to 2009 standards (clearly a goal if our first 2 rounds were any indication), then a 20TD/9INT QB could win a Super Bowl. Only 6 QBs in the league scored that many TDs with that few turnovers, and turnovers often amount to winning or losing.

      • Ripp May 16, 2011 at 1:14 pm #

        What was Chad Pennington’s TD/INT ratio? You are going by stats. Stats alone don’t say anything about intangibles. Look at Rothlistberger, not very flashy, he puts up decent number but most importantly he finds ways to get things done, he knows how to win. Can you say that about Orton? You can throw out that TD/INT ratio all you want and yeah, Orton probably could win games for us in the regular season but come post season I bet he folds like a cheap suit. Even when Mike Nolan was up there he was not winning the games he needed to win. People fall in love with stats and that is understandable but look at his win loss column, look at his playoff appearance and look how many time he rallied his team from behind. This guy reminds me of Romo. I know a lot of Dallas fans and they all say the same thing…Romo will not take us to the SB. I will also put out there he played in a weak division. How well his stats will hold up going up against NE and the jets twice a year? which I also think the Bills will take a huge leap this year.

        Put up a elite defense and a great running game we probably could win games even with Henne at the helm. After all we went 7-9 despite 3 games where there were complete ST melt down, a very poor running game and towards of the season the pass blocking was even struggling.

      • Dan Ewen May 16, 2011 at 1:39 pm #

        If you don’t like Orton, no worries. But Henne has never played QB as well as him. Not yet. Just a fact. Poll 100 experts on who plays better QB, Orton or Henne. It would be unanimous.

    • Ripp May 16, 2011 at 4:13 pm #

      I am just making a point that we over value players like Orton. If he came cheep, sure I would not mind Orton on the team, but I would not give up a 2nd for him and say he is the future of the franchise. At some point Miami needs to stop going for other peoples trash and do what ever it takes to get a QB that they can believe in. Miami’s next chance in doing that will be next year with Luck and they will need that 2nd rd pick to trade up for him. They need to do what ever it takes to get him.

      Ask your experts if they think Orton is a QB who can carry a team. Fact is fact Orton is not a proven winner. Miami needs to stop going after QBs that only can get by but fails when it counts.

      • Dan Ewen May 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm #

        I respect your opinion, but I would say you are undervaluing Orton, who for three years straight has been a 20TD 10INT guy. He turned Brandon Lloyd into a freaking maniac this year. 1400+ yards for Brandon Lloyd!? Only a second rounder for a QB who not only protects the ball, but threw for 280 yards a game with a lesser receiving corps? 2011 YPG leaders: 1. Rivers 1T. Manning 2. Brees 3. Orton. This was Orton’s first losing season. Perhaps that was due more to Denver’s 32nd ranked defense and 26th ranked running game than it was to Kyle. The year before that they were one game out of the wild card, still with a sub-par ground game.

        Pennington took care of the ball, sure. 19TDs, 7INTS in our 11-5 year. But if you notice, over 50 fewer yards per game than Orton. Because unlike Chad (both Chads actually), Orton throws the deep ball. This year he had 7 passes of 40+ yards TO LLOYD ALONE. Four different Broncos had catches of 40+. This was in only 13 games. Pennington threw one 40+ yard pass to a WR. One. Henne had three passes of 40+ this season. Total. And one was a 15-yard out that Marlon Moore broke long against Oakland. A 2nd rounder would be very reasonable for a guy still in his 20s, who can step under center and deliver big plays without turnovers. Schaub cost the Texans two second rounders, and at that point he had thrown for 6TDs and 6INTs in his career.

        And for the record, four of the 2010 playoff QBs were discarded or traded from their original teams. Planning to trade up and get Luck at the expense of improving now is a slippery slope, IMO.

      • Ripp May 16, 2011 at 10:04 pm #

        IMpressive stats indeed but again you are throwing stats at me. Stats only go so far. Jeff George put up some nice stats and played for several other teams yet found ways to lose games, Tony Romo has put up nice stats only to choke in the playoffs. Until proven other wise I think Orton is a choker. Look at his win loss, look at his 3rd down proficiency, look at how many times he brought his team back to win. Hey I am not the only one who thinks this way. Why don’t yo check out this blog out….http://www.milehighreport.com/2010/12/7/1857111/third-down-and-out. Not sure it will change you mind but I am sure we can agree to disagree.

      • Dan Ewen May 16, 2011 at 10:56 pm #

        Glad to agree to disagree on this. A lot of useful stats in the Mile High Report, though it rather matter of factly blames Orton for the sacks. Denver was one of the worst pass blocking o-lines in football, with Tebow or Orton at QB. Run blocking too. Orton was in the shotgun because defenders were bringing the house. The quicker defenders blow through the line, the less time you’ve got to work through your progressions. The report also doesn’t mention the Denver WR corps, which was one of the only ones in the league without a single player with a 1,000 yard season on the resume. Or any semblance of a decent TE. Scheffler was traded. Daniel Graham led their TEs with 148 total yards. That is a disgusting number. TEs are huge on converting 3rd downs (29 of Fasano’s 39 catches were for 1st downs, 500+ yards, 4 TDs). Blah blah blah.

        Nice to talk football with a true Dolphin fan.

        Stop by anytime.

  2. shula knows May 15, 2011 at 2:25 am #

    Ross is probably not going to allow these clowns to mortgage the future of the franchise by giving away valuable draft picks.

    this regime has supposedly already missed on the (and maybe three qb’s already)

    Pat White was a disaster (2nd round pick), if Henne flops (another 2nd round pick) and if Johh Beck becomes the starter in Washington (another 2nd round qb who the tri-dummies gave up on)

    Do you really trust this regime with selecting the next franchise qb when they would have failed 3 times already trying?

    I say, pick a guy that will be a FA or released or a late round pick, i.e. Vince Young or on of the other stiffs that may become valuable and let NEXT years coaching staff select “their” guy if these clowns fail once more which is the likely event.

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